Monday, November 8, 2021

Yet another pivot, but no change in overall goals.

So, I did it.  

 I recalled that account from the advisor who took a walkabout from the service I wanted him to provide. I sat on the cash for several weeks. Then, slowly, I dusted off my old routine, began reading about the status of the market, began looking for fairly valued/undervalued dividend paying, dividend growth equities. Over several weeks, I got back to fully invested. I still have a lot more cash in a bond fund that I haven't touched; more on that later. 

As a preface for the following, I should mention that I am on the cusp of returning to work. After a long and thorough search, I now have three, count'm three, opportunities in front of me. I am pursuing all in parallel, assuming that one or even two could fall through. I have the real prospect of returning to the kind of earnings I once had with quite a bit less effort than I expended back then.

 I also had a follow-up conversation with the advisors who hold the other half of our retirement assets. I put the screws to them to explain in more detail how their services distinguish them from average, and why I should continue to pay them for overseeing my accounts.  Frankly, they did a good job of it. And, wonder of wonders, I decided to go ahead and consolidate all of our liquid assets under their management. In one sense it seems exactly opposite of my thoughts only a few months ago, but then, I am returning to work, and the single most productive use of my time is in doing what I know best, functioning as a physician. I was also able to get a good  look at performance of the funds, which convinced me that the account performance far outweighed the management fees. 

I intend to continue to be an interested and engaged participant in the management of our assets. I have principles I'd like to see tested and validated. After all, it's my money. I'm not resistant to the advice of professionals. I simply want to understand the source of their recommendations. So what about the bond fund? I think I'll handle that issue through dialogue; it represents only about 10-15%of the entirety of the asset base, but a big enough chunk to make a measurable difference in growth/earnings if deployed into other asset classes. Which ones?  let's see what the experts say.

Principles;

1) Our retirement assets are a business. We are the owners of that business. 

2) The business will eventually need to pay our expenses, without eroding it's basis. I'm not interested in a shrinking business. I'd like it to maintain itself, taking inflation into account. Better yet, I'd like to see it grow. 

3) Success in our business is not determined by benchmarks. It is determined by an acceptable level of performance according to several metrics. As a conglomerate, each component needs to perform at minimal levels, or that component should be sold and replaced. 

a. Earnings and earnings growth; Positive earnings yearly, earnings yield of 5%+, and 6-7% earnings growth is a good target. 

b. Dividends and dividend growth; across the portfolio an average of 3% dividend yield, and 5+% dividend growth are thresholds for holding, consideration of sell/replace. 

c. Quality; credit rating, presence or absence of volatility. I like steady-Eddy companies. Cyclical is not my thing. 

d. Diversity; look for diversity across market sectors. I'm not all that interested in international holdings as a class for diversity sake. I feel like 50 individual holdings is more than enough to insure against a total meltdown in one or another component of the conglomerate. Diversity in asset class (healthy component of real estate) as well as earnings methods. sales, services, rents, debt service, etc.

e. Valuation;  important at purchase, potentially useful at a point of re-balancing, otherwise it can be ignored as long as other metrics are holding up. 

f. Growth;  growth is good, but there's nothing wrong with a company that is highly profitable and rewards it's owners in a slow-to-no growth sector. I can achieve growth in my position with reinvestment. 

The overall goal is steady and growing income, with reinvestment as appropriate, depending on the need for cash to cover expenses. We don't require "rich" to be secure and content. Our goal is "enough" and a secure, growing asset base and stream of income. I don't see a time when we should sell the business.

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