Wednesday, December 25, 2013

buy and monitor...closely

I spend far too much time monitoring my portfolio. I'm not all that effective at it, since I haven't created a spreadsheet that automatically tracks dividend growth and revenue growth and price appreciation. However, I'm pretty familiar with all the issues and where they have traded over the last several years. That's from spending time with them. I read alot, particularly on the companies I own, through Seeking Alpha. Some of my issues are covered by newsletters to which I subscribe, but I'm dropping a few of these because they are no longer offering me new ideas that I'd like to purchase.
I'm in the "maintain, grow and occasionally replace"  mode, not the acquire more issues mode. In spite of increasing talk about a heated-up market and "are we in a bubble?", I have reviewed each holding using my FastGRAPHS program and none are more than modestly over-valued. Many are merely at their historic P/E, after 5-6years of being relatively under-valued. A few are over their historic valuation, but not by much.

It's hard to imagine that I have built a bullet-proof portfolio of companies that don't swing wildly into over-valued territory, but since essentially all my holdings are broadly in the DG camp, it may well be that earnings determine dividends and dividends anchor valuation. That would be nice, because the DRIP works better when valuations are not inflated, and steady valuations mean less rebalancing, less need to moniter so frequently. When I view all of the other dividend growth portfolios that are posted on the web, I don't see more than another 30 or so companies that I might consider owning, so I guess that means my portfolio is fairly mature.

I suppose reviewing it over and over won't make it any better. New money will flow in January and I'll be back at the decision to either augment holdings or find something new.