Sunday, June 30, 2013

Correct, already?

So, stocks are down. sort of. They're actually up, but down a bit from last month.
We were all shocked by the run-up, then shocked by the reaction to Ben Bernanke's hint about something...something about maybe he would eventually stop buying treasuries.
We're through another earnings season. I think it said that earnings are up, but guidance for the end of the year is down. Or maybe not...Everyone is worried that interest rates will rise, in fact they are rising in response to the worry, since noone is willing to pay that much for a bond now that they are worrying.  Now they're worrying that since bond prices will swoon as rates go up that dividend paying stocks will follow.

It's not a wall of worry, it's an entire landscape of worry. I think I won't worry. My portfolio is down a bit, but it's up from last year. The dividends keep rolling in. I'm continuing to contribute to the 401k, and now have the IRA and the Roth IRA to keep me occupied.

I guess I could worry that my DRIPs are resulting in a slowly rising cost basis, or that I'm purchasing shares near their all-time highs. I could be building cash. But then I always have the strong desire to spend it, so perhaps it's better just spread throughout the entire portfolio.  When I check in on my holdings, they all seem to be no more than mildly over-valued and some aren't at all.

One thing is clear; my share count continues to rise, by 3-4% yearly, not counting new money. If values increase by another 5%, I have an 8% return; just like PERS.  I think Chuck Carnevale is right; the stocks are valued by their earnings, and the market forgets about the additional 3% they spin out in dividends. I'll be happy if they keep forgetting. I'll also be happy if the whole market corrects some more. I could use a higher dividend yield.  In my case it's the rate at which I acquire more shares.
more shares, more dividends. bring on the dividends; they're my paycheck. I'll continue to reinvest because my real paycheck is paying the bills these days.

I have a new 401k account. I'm self -directing, even though there is a plan manager. The plan manager doesn't know what to do with me. Apparently I'm about the only one who wants to self direct, out of hundreds of employees and over 130 physicians. For that they charge a fee!  I guess it's because they have to do some accounting and report what I'm up to. I'm not sure how they are separating out the Roth contributions from the profit sharing, which goes into a traditional 401k account. I only see one account. Their problem, I guess. They haven't granted options permission, although I've asked. I guess I'm the only one with enough interests in covered calls and cash covered puts to inquire about them.

So; when values spiked, I trimmed out a piece from the most ludicrously over-valued shares. Now I can repurchase them since they have fallen back to earth. I'd still like to put a few more stalwarts in the portfolio, but I'm waiting for a good buying opportunity, as some are still at historic highs. Patience isn't my highest virtue. I keep looking for that truffle that I can slip in there. I uncovered a couple using my FastGraph screening tool, but I'll have to think about them for a bit...
not much of value to report...