Sunday, June 12, 2011

Resisting temptation to give in to the doomsday-sayers

There's lots of not-so-good news out there. It seems the market rose through the spring in spite of the popular news; earnings were high, dividends increased, even as the world economy is under threat of a debt-crisis and there are signs of a slowing economic recovery in the US, as well as catastrophe in Japan and a real-estate bubble in China.

Now, in the traditional dog days of late-spring/summer, the market is now correcting. Some folks say store cash.
Others say you can't time the market. I'm no financial professional, just a guy trying to build a money-making machine that will secure my family and my old age, which is coming faster than I like.

I'm listening to and reading an increasing circle of voices; what comes through strongest is looking at companies that are steadily, increasingly profitable and willing to share some of that profit in the form of dividends. Some would argue that paying dividends is inefficient, exposing company profits to taxation in the hands of stockholders, rather than buying shares or re-investing profits in new production. Since I invest in pre-tax and tax-advantaged accounts, I'm not exposed to this taxation, so I'm DRIPing at 100% efficiency in re-investment. The issue about companies that pay dividends is management discipline in accountability to owners. The reason for a business's existence is to produce income for it's owners. Since the stock market doesn't perfectly value companies, sometimes for years at at time, dividends represent real tangible returns on the owner's investment. I'm watching yearly dividends rise; best I can tell, my annual dividend production has increased by about 1/3 in the last two years, considering both new investment and portfolio performance.
My goal is to build a portfolio that doesn't need retooling as retirement approaches, instead I hope it will simply continue to pump out dividend growth that will adequately fund the maintenance needs of my family. That means it needs to perform better than inflation and the dividend production needs to be at least equivalent to inflation at retirement. I have another 16 years before qualifying for SSI, so that means another $800k of contributions if I'm lucky. If the current corpus grows at 10%, I'll have an adequate income stream to fund a comfortable retirement and leave the corpus to my son and charities when I leave this mortal coil. In the mean time, I'm insured for the amount of money I'd otherwise earn at my current production, so if I can keep this level of performance, I'll meet my goals.

Trouble is, I see myself losing the drive to do what I've been doing the last 16 years. I'm not sure what is going to change, but something has to. I have deferred so much personal time that I am losing the desire to pick up those things I used to enjoy and start them up again. Cutting back on the amount of work means cutting back on earnings, possibly cutting back on deferrals and ultimate financial goals.

Then, who said I need all that much income in retirement? It's time to rethink all of that. Money doesn't buy time. Time runs out. Noone knows when the clock runs out. So, I think I'll run both programs as best I can; continue to defer all the income possible, live on a bit less and carve out a bit more time. That's about the best I can do under the circumstances, and hope my investment choices are sound. I'm no trader, so buy and hold will either work or it won't.

Increasingly, I'm listening to the "stocks you can own forever" kind of voices. I'm building positions in stuff that people will need in all climates: energy, staples, water, etc. I don't have the stomach for fliers, so I won't be scoring any 10 baggers. I'm steadily looking for opportunities to add international holdings, understanding that the old US of A is heading for disaster with unsustainable debt, an aging population and inevitable increase in taxation. That means the business performance is going to be elsewhere. Also, focusing on tax advantaged investment should continue to pay off.

In summary, I'm continuing to invest, willing to ride out the corrections in an "all in" orientation, as along as dividends flow and my positions can continue to grow.