Sunday, April 24, 2016

what a difference a month makes

Here we are in the end of April; spring has really sprung.  What a difference a month makes; days are longer, brighter. We're getting plenty of spring showers to help the natural world emerge.

We're through the January market correction and out the other side, with valuations rising even higher. I'm still sitting on my hands mostly, but I decided after all these years to get out of my MLPs to avoid any downstream UBTI  implications in the future. KMI isn't a MLP anymore, so I haven't sold it. EPD, a much more solid player, is an MLP and I was sad to see it go, but I think there are equivalent opportunities now in the oil majors, the REIT sector and other miscellaneous corners of the investment world.  Also, for the first time in history, I'm just letting a bit of cash sit in the account. Since I don't have any compelling ideas, I'm happy to wait for a fat pitch to come my way.

The portfolio hit a new high; 2% higher than ever before, without any significant contributions for over 4 months. This is mostly a valuation issue, but those steady dividends, reinvested, amplify every move, as there are that many more soldiers in the army to march up and down the hill. I just noticed that my year to date, one year and 3 year internal rates of return have turned nicely positive since the latest move. Valuation is a fickle thing, but share count doesn't move up and down for the buy and hold investor,  rather the direction is almost exclusively up.

If I reinvested 8% dividends and distributions into more shares yearly in a flat market, I'd have a very respectable yield. I am reinvesting 3+% and adding 5% to the portfolio, so portfolio growth will be in the realm of 8% if the market runs flat, and greater if there is any capital gain performance.

I'm happy with 8% portfolio growth. I'll be happier when earnings, dividends and contributions put me in the 11-12% range. I'll keep watching, learning better how to spot risk, re-deploying cash when it arrives and there's an opportunity shining in front of me.

April showers bring May flowers; let it rain...