In my daily perusal of the blogosphere, I'm starting to see folks talking about indicators of a correction. So, I'm trying to understand what those indicators are. After all, when the valuations are rising, they are either doing so on the back of increased earnings, or on the back of market sentiment, and we know that in the short run, the market reflects the composite emotions of investors. We can be seized by elation or dispair, follow rumors, follow the proclamations of "experts", etc. Even the habit companies are in of offering "guidance"is a potential source of worry, or earnings expectations, which are then chewed and digested by analysts, who issue their own guidance, trying to anticipate what will actually happen. These predictions lead to the game of beating estimates, or falling short of estimates, which in turn drives short term volitility on stock prices.
I'm constantly being sucked back into that vortex of anxiety based review of holdings, wondering if they are "overvalued, undervalued, or fully valued". I have to remind myself that I've decided to behave differently. I've decided to buy a stream of income, and not pay too much for that stream. Over time, I want that stream to increase, both by new purchases, and by reinvestment of dividends. Over time, more of the growth in the income stream should be from the portfolio performance itself, rather than new contributions.
When one has 50-60 issues and demands a history of rising stream of dividends, it becomes less likely that new ideas are going to pop up that haven't been seen before. The program must therefore change to which ones represent the best risk-adjusted opportunity at the moment. If the value runs up ahead of a rising dividend stream, it probably makes sense to reposition into lower PE options, understanding that rising dividends should follow the streakers, or valuation should follow rising dividends. Either way, buying the dividends rather than looking for rising valuation probably drive new money. I'm headed over to the portfolio to see if this logic is applicable right now...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
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