Good question, self!. I've been working on this question for some time now. I own one equity in my 401k that represents a pure growth strategy; Medco. It spun out of Merck a few years back and landed, kerplunk, in my portfolio without requiring any work on my part at all. Since there weren't all that many shares and the brokerage fees at that time were a real disincentive to sell, I just let it sit there. Some time later, I took a look and realized that Medco was growing steadily and rapidly. I took my heart in my hand and bought a bunch more, and it continued to grow, and grow. Now that is rewarding! But, unless I keep buying, my position is fixed, and the total value of that investment is purely based on stock-price.
Well, to be honest, I also have some Berkshire B shares. Now that they were split and a part of every index fund on earth, they have actually appreciated a good deal in value, but like others, I put my faith in the wisdom of the Oracle to align my interests with his and grow the value of that company.
For all other mere mortals, I start with the primal question; what are you paying me this quarter/month/year? The question is, how much payment is enough?
It seems to make intuitive sense that if inflation is running 3%, and the purchasing power of a dollar is thus eroding by about the same percent, that equities in my portfolio should be capable of appreciating at a bare minimum of 3%, if there is an adequate dividend over and above that to reward me for owning them. The smaller the dividend, the more I want to see increase in value. On the other hand, I want to get paid NOW, or this year at least, so I myself can make the choice to invest more in the company or not, rather than allowing the CEO or the board to make that decision for me. Thus, I won't accept zero dividend except under very specific circumstances.
Also, I can understand compounding pretty easily, so I want to see the number of stocks I'm holding rising, and the quarterly/ monthly dividend payments increasing. This is my proof that my ownership in the company is securing a rising stream of payments (again, keep an eye on that payout ratio, or perhaps the company is losing the means to earn revenues)
If that position is only increasing a tiny bit at a time, or the dividend payments look static over 2-3 years, it makes me a bit nervous, so my personal floor on dividend payment is around 3% per year, sector by sector. I get a lot of comfort out of visible increases in the size of a position and visible increases in dividend payments, provided the valuation isn't plummeting or the payout ratio isn't rising.
Within any market cap range and any sector, one can find solid companies with a history of rising earnings and rising dividend payments. If the price of those payments is at a historic high, one can choose to wait, or average into a position over time, or look elsewhere. this is obviously a dividend investing strategy, but I don't stick to "dividend achievers" or "dividend aristocrats". I'm also looking in places other than the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 for investments that meet those criteria. I want diversification between fixed income and equities, between sectors, between US and international investments, in exchanges other than the NYSE and NASDAQ.
Friday, February 19, 2010
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