Another season, another post.
We're halfway into the fall academic term. I am 10 1/2 months past full time surgery practice. Time has passed, efforts have been underway for some months now, the season is turning towards winter and I am still looking for the upswing in business. Start-ups are hard work, need plenty of working capital and need to be nurtured like infants, to adulthood. I'm 250k into it, need another 50k at least to get over the hump. The easy money has been spent, now I have to dip into slightly less "ready" reserves.
Simply stated, tap some Roth IRA funds. Ow, that hurts! I worked really hard to build up meaningful balances in my Roth accounts when they became available. They are not the majority of my retirement holdings, but are the most versatile, in my opinion. However, all other withdrawal of assets come with penalties, or taxes plus penalties for some time into the future, so the Roths are in the spotlight. I rarely sell an equity once I've bought it. However, I have held onto some positions that have not performed all that well. So, for the first time, I am selling companies that; pay dividends but have not appreciated in value adequately, pay dividends but have lost value for one reason or another, pay dividends below my 3% threshold for core positions and have had substantial capital gains, but are not my core holdings. One has 59 days to reverse a withdrawal of contributions from a Roth IRA, after which one can only contribute at limits prescribed by law. It's highly unlikely that my fortunes will change dramatically in 59 days, so I have to face the equivalent of a 2.5-3% reduction in the value of my retirement assets to mobilize what I need to take me past the new year.
What takes the sting out a bit is that I have resisted pruning the portfolio of laggards in the total return category because what I value most is cash flow created by dividends and dividend reinvestment. Provided there aren't dividend cuts, I'll hold an attractive dividend paying stock even if it is not appreciating to expectations, because I know that the reinvestment produces compounding regardless of what is happening with valuation. So the need to tap into contributions represents an opportunity to weed out the holdings. It means that a smaller corpus will continue to generate dividends and the portfolio will appreciate at a greater rate, even if from a reduced basis.
So, I used my charter life membership access to FASTGraphs and weeded out the most overvalued, those with the lowest dividend and those whose growth in valuation had stalled or turned negative.
That pruned the portfolio by about 1/3. I have done that in the most recent of my Roth accounts that holds mostly contributions and the lowest fraction of earnings. I double checked the cost basis to assure that I didn't approach the threshold of accessing earnings to avoid penalty. Since I won't be able to replace that cash, I'll need to start contributing, both I and the wife, so we can replace those contributions as soon as possible.
We all know a correction is coming, sooner or later. Generally I just ride them out and wait for recovery. While we're not at the market peak (that was a few weeks back), we're still richly valued and its not a bad time to "take profits", taking care not to dip into earnings.
now it's late, and there are other things to do, so enough said on the first raid on retirement assets. May it never be needed again. ptui!
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Saturday, July 14, 2018
Well into transition
Here it is, already July. I looked back at the pre-termination post, realized that things have turned out pretty much like I hoped with the transition. Not that it wasn't stressful, mind you. Leaving early and coming home late papered over a whole raft of deferred maintenance on relationships and exposed some character traits in me and my family that we hadn't experienced from one another before.
So, how is this transition going from the standpoint of ultimately planning for retirement?
Well, I am about to open my laser scar practice; grand opening in about a month. I found the space in April, and starting a solo practice has a lot of details in it; fortunately former coworkers have come alongside to help, in whom I have a great deal of trust, so that's a feel good thing. My oldest and bestest friend agreed (he must be as foolish as I am) to uproot himself from a comfortable existence in the bay area and become my partner in a start-up maker design/prototype business. He gets a modest stipend, free lodging, equity stake and space for his own engine shop. I get a ton of help, motivation, enjoyment and the ability to leave town and earn money, knowing that he's minding the store. This summer we have 5 young employees; 3 alumni from student projects and two new students. They're humming along making stuff, a sight to behold. The ground floor remodel is about to begin. A 20ft yurt has been erected under the trees on my property. A studio/cottage/tiny-house on a double-axle trailer is under construction. Money is flowing like water. I am now actively working remotely, a week or two at a time, at fine wages, the only drawback being that I can't be at home where all the excitement is ongoing. I'll do this about half-time until local businesses require my full time attention. Hopefully they will supplant the income I produce on the road as well.
I'm thinking that another 9 years is my working horizon, many less. By then, my boy Alex should be approximately through with college. By then, hopefully we'll have completed a renovation of the entire place, and we'll have the main residence, ADU, garage-over studio and the tiny-house, plus the yurt. My wife and I can move into smaller digs and let someone else utilize the larger dwelling space. We may be able to garner enough income to cover the entire cost of the mortgage, or I may cash out some assets and pay it way down. Life happens while you make plans, so it's all speculation.
With no new money flowing into my retirement accounts, I have been sitting on my hands. I am thinking about increasing the "quality" of my portfolio. It's pretty wide, could possibly be a bit deeper. I have a large-cap bent in the bigger accounts, a small-cap dividend-paying value bent in the smaller accounts. cash flow is growing moderately. in all of those accounts, I may have as many as 75 different holdings. They are distributed between Roth and traditional IRA accounts, with one little qualified plan ticking along with TIAA CREF for nearly 25 years now. My wife has a qualified plan and two supplemental plans that we have not converted, purely due to the inconvenience of having to figure out how to do it. Valuations have eased, meaning the portfolio's value is being driven by dividend reinvestment primarily. I'm going to keep my eye on that number; growth in cash flow, as the primary indication that I can reach the amount of income I need by the time I'm really done with working for wages. I'm a total return investor with a dividend focus; I want my holdings to pay me now and I will decide what to do with my cash. Right now, I'm happy to turn each company's payments back into a larger stake. Later, some of it will pay the bills.
As the pain of a deteriorating experience in hospital-based surgery begins to fade into the background, I can say that all the work of discernment was worth it. I made it out alive, through the valley of the shadow of death and back up to a place where I can see the horizon again. I'm still mourning the loss of a few relationships, but those that matter most are either intact or dormant and will emerge at some point down the line.
I think that's about enough summation for now. The shadows are getting longer and I need to get on the bike and ride a bit.
So, how is this transition going from the standpoint of ultimately planning for retirement?
Well, I am about to open my laser scar practice; grand opening in about a month. I found the space in April, and starting a solo practice has a lot of details in it; fortunately former coworkers have come alongside to help, in whom I have a great deal of trust, so that's a feel good thing. My oldest and bestest friend agreed (he must be as foolish as I am) to uproot himself from a comfortable existence in the bay area and become my partner in a start-up maker design/prototype business. He gets a modest stipend, free lodging, equity stake and space for his own engine shop. I get a ton of help, motivation, enjoyment and the ability to leave town and earn money, knowing that he's minding the store. This summer we have 5 young employees; 3 alumni from student projects and two new students. They're humming along making stuff, a sight to behold. The ground floor remodel is about to begin. A 20ft yurt has been erected under the trees on my property. A studio/cottage/tiny-house on a double-axle trailer is under construction. Money is flowing like water. I am now actively working remotely, a week or two at a time, at fine wages, the only drawback being that I can't be at home where all the excitement is ongoing. I'll do this about half-time until local businesses require my full time attention. Hopefully they will supplant the income I produce on the road as well.
I'm thinking that another 9 years is my working horizon, many less. By then, my boy Alex should be approximately through with college. By then, hopefully we'll have completed a renovation of the entire place, and we'll have the main residence, ADU, garage-over studio and the tiny-house, plus the yurt. My wife and I can move into smaller digs and let someone else utilize the larger dwelling space. We may be able to garner enough income to cover the entire cost of the mortgage, or I may cash out some assets and pay it way down. Life happens while you make plans, so it's all speculation.
With no new money flowing into my retirement accounts, I have been sitting on my hands. I am thinking about increasing the "quality" of my portfolio. It's pretty wide, could possibly be a bit deeper. I have a large-cap bent in the bigger accounts, a small-cap dividend-paying value bent in the smaller accounts. cash flow is growing moderately. in all of those accounts, I may have as many as 75 different holdings. They are distributed between Roth and traditional IRA accounts, with one little qualified plan ticking along with TIAA CREF for nearly 25 years now. My wife has a qualified plan and two supplemental plans that we have not converted, purely due to the inconvenience of having to figure out how to do it. Valuations have eased, meaning the portfolio's value is being driven by dividend reinvestment primarily. I'm going to keep my eye on that number; growth in cash flow, as the primary indication that I can reach the amount of income I need by the time I'm really done with working for wages. I'm a total return investor with a dividend focus; I want my holdings to pay me now and I will decide what to do with my cash. Right now, I'm happy to turn each company's payments back into a larger stake. Later, some of it will pay the bills.
As the pain of a deteriorating experience in hospital-based surgery begins to fade into the background, I can say that all the work of discernment was worth it. I made it out alive, through the valley of the shadow of death and back up to a place where I can see the horizon again. I'm still mourning the loss of a few relationships, but those that matter most are either intact or dormant and will emerge at some point down the line.
I think that's about enough summation for now. The shadows are getting longer and I need to get on the bike and ride a bit.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Where's the love?
Let me avert my eyes for a few precious moments from the horror show that is our public discourse.
Why can't we simply label the swamp of all swamps to be too toxic to enter at this juncture and simply turn away.
I'm glad to see someone has finally pricked the balloon that was not a bubble, according to my sources.
I am 5 weeks into the "in between". Somewhere in between the chronic downer that was the last few years and the fear and excitement of what may come next. Mainly I am tired. I wonder how long it takes for the mind to heal after years of overdrive? probably more than 5 weeks, I'm finding.
the crazy upswing and the recent downdraft left me feeling, um, not much at all. I'm glad to see prices moderate a bit. No new money to invest, so the DRIPS are the whole show at the moment.
I checked last year's overall results; My valuation is up 15%, not nearly in sync with the market valuation, and I'm happy with that. More exciting is a 13% increase in cash payments in my IRAs. I haven't done the comparison on the 401k. I think what matters more is performance during a bear market. I don't have to rely so very much in capital gains; I will continue to focus on the rate of increased dividend payments as a means to project my date of emancipation from daily labor for wages.
no inspiration other than to say, I'm sitting on my hands once more...
time for bed...
Let me avert my eyes for a few precious moments from the horror show that is our public discourse.
Why can't we simply label the swamp of all swamps to be too toxic to enter at this juncture and simply turn away.
I'm glad to see someone has finally pricked the balloon that was not a bubble, according to my sources.
I am 5 weeks into the "in between". Somewhere in between the chronic downer that was the last few years and the fear and excitement of what may come next. Mainly I am tired. I wonder how long it takes for the mind to heal after years of overdrive? probably more than 5 weeks, I'm finding.
the crazy upswing and the recent downdraft left me feeling, um, not much at all. I'm glad to see prices moderate a bit. No new money to invest, so the DRIPS are the whole show at the moment.
I checked last year's overall results; My valuation is up 15%, not nearly in sync with the market valuation, and I'm happy with that. More exciting is a 13% increase in cash payments in my IRAs. I haven't done the comparison on the 401k. I think what matters more is performance during a bear market. I don't have to rely so very much in capital gains; I will continue to focus on the rate of increased dividend payments as a means to project my date of emancipation from daily labor for wages.
no inspiration other than to say, I'm sitting on my hands once more...
time for bed...
Thursday, December 21, 2017
Merry Merry Happy Happy
Someone once said the the only thing you can count on, other than death and taxes, is change.
No s**t, Sherlock.
This 2017 retrospective touches on the toughest year, bar none, in my adult life. In spite, and as a result of furious effort, endless hours, at least 3 advisors and many nights of poor sleep, I am on the verge of being unemployed for the first time in 30 years.
It's not all bad, because I'm precisely where I need to be, but the compulsion to "transform in place" rather than lock the door and throw away the key on a deteriorating set of relationships cost me an incalculable amount of gray hair and general misery.
Looking forward, all is good. The key is not to fight to preserve something from the past, rather take what is there and craft something new with it. I have a great set of plans, some of which will probably fail spectacularly, but no matter; I'm in it for the fun, not the money or the fame.
Something I learned, perhaps for the first time in a very profound way, is that the place I am happy is directly at the bleeding edge of innovation. My kind of innovation doesn't require a lifetime of computer science. I am a "low tech" kind of guy, but there are endless places one can make improvements that all add up to "grease"; smoother, simpler, more efficient products and processes when one puts one's mind to work.
So, what has charged me up for the last several years as my primary wage earning work has become less and less fulfilling and the environment in which I work became a hostile place for me? Innovation. Innovation in thinking about burn prevention in far away places. Innovation in how we replace skin after a major burn. Innovation in how we take the principles of burn care to places who could never afford how we do it. Innovation in treating scars with lasers. I have come to accept that I'm a frustrated inventor, engineer in the disguise of a surgeon. Starting in January, I'll earn a salary on short term surgical assignments out in the periphery and spend most of my time developing an independent laser scar treatment program, designing widgets in my mini-maker lab and pursuing the burn prevention objective in Africa. These are all things I am passionate about, have enjoyed doing in the recent interval and have nothing to do with the pressure cooker environment of an inpatient burn center.
How are the finances going to work out? God will provide...Seriously, I believe that. I also can't sit on my duff waiting for a check. We sold and bought a house this year, reducing monthly costs 20%. We will refurbish and invite the inlaws into the ADU and reduce costs another 20%. I will fund IRAs, but no more qualified plan for the time being. I'm on a virtual scavenge hunt to purchase the tools I need in the pre-owned market to keep costs down. I will have to ratchet back my life insurance costs again. I will need to work for wages 7-10 days per month to allow me to pursue the other items in the remaining time. It will be a grand adventure!
As much as I abhore everything about our national government at this point, I imagine the tax bill that just passed will benefit me. I intend to expense everything I can through the new business, drive my taxable income down to precisely what cannot be invested in the business.
Our overall retirement savings are in good shape; we have passed the point where savings can provide us a sustainable income from dividends/distributions/interest payments only. It's a bit scary not shoveling more at it, but I don't think we'll be missing out on round-the-world cruises for the lack of more retirement savings, since we weren't planning on that anyway.
I haven't seen a thing worth changing about my portfolio lately; the last bolus of money entering the qualified plan comes sometime in early 2018. If I invest anything outside of a tax free/deferred environment, it will be purchasing tax-free muni's or something similar. I think it's more likely I will invest in the opportunity to share ground with others who need housing in a beautiful place ( my new spread).
more reflection next time...
No s**t, Sherlock.
This 2017 retrospective touches on the toughest year, bar none, in my adult life. In spite, and as a result of furious effort, endless hours, at least 3 advisors and many nights of poor sleep, I am on the verge of being unemployed for the first time in 30 years.
It's not all bad, because I'm precisely where I need to be, but the compulsion to "transform in place" rather than lock the door and throw away the key on a deteriorating set of relationships cost me an incalculable amount of gray hair and general misery.
Looking forward, all is good. The key is not to fight to preserve something from the past, rather take what is there and craft something new with it. I have a great set of plans, some of which will probably fail spectacularly, but no matter; I'm in it for the fun, not the money or the fame.
Something I learned, perhaps for the first time in a very profound way, is that the place I am happy is directly at the bleeding edge of innovation. My kind of innovation doesn't require a lifetime of computer science. I am a "low tech" kind of guy, but there are endless places one can make improvements that all add up to "grease"; smoother, simpler, more efficient products and processes when one puts one's mind to work.
So, what has charged me up for the last several years as my primary wage earning work has become less and less fulfilling and the environment in which I work became a hostile place for me? Innovation. Innovation in thinking about burn prevention in far away places. Innovation in how we replace skin after a major burn. Innovation in how we take the principles of burn care to places who could never afford how we do it. Innovation in treating scars with lasers. I have come to accept that I'm a frustrated inventor, engineer in the disguise of a surgeon. Starting in January, I'll earn a salary on short term surgical assignments out in the periphery and spend most of my time developing an independent laser scar treatment program, designing widgets in my mini-maker lab and pursuing the burn prevention objective in Africa. These are all things I am passionate about, have enjoyed doing in the recent interval and have nothing to do with the pressure cooker environment of an inpatient burn center.
How are the finances going to work out? God will provide...Seriously, I believe that. I also can't sit on my duff waiting for a check. We sold and bought a house this year, reducing monthly costs 20%. We will refurbish and invite the inlaws into the ADU and reduce costs another 20%. I will fund IRAs, but no more qualified plan for the time being. I'm on a virtual scavenge hunt to purchase the tools I need in the pre-owned market to keep costs down. I will have to ratchet back my life insurance costs again. I will need to work for wages 7-10 days per month to allow me to pursue the other items in the remaining time. It will be a grand adventure!
As much as I abhore everything about our national government at this point, I imagine the tax bill that just passed will benefit me. I intend to expense everything I can through the new business, drive my taxable income down to precisely what cannot be invested in the business.
Our overall retirement savings are in good shape; we have passed the point where savings can provide us a sustainable income from dividends/distributions/interest payments only. It's a bit scary not shoveling more at it, but I don't think we'll be missing out on round-the-world cruises for the lack of more retirement savings, since we weren't planning on that anyway.
I haven't seen a thing worth changing about my portfolio lately; the last bolus of money entering the qualified plan comes sometime in early 2018. If I invest anything outside of a tax free/deferred environment, it will be purchasing tax-free muni's or something similar. I think it's more likely I will invest in the opportunity to share ground with others who need housing in a beautiful place ( my new spread).
more reflection next time...
The higher they fly...
Who knows how and why the stock market behaves as it does?
We have a hot mess in the White House, A lunatic at the helm, but we have record low( if you massage the numbers correctly) unemployment and equity markets continue to escape gravity in spite of threats of rising interest rates, sinking dollar, federal policy chaos.
The fact is, value should follow earnings first and foremost. Clearly some equities have performance to back up their evaluaton. The market still shows signs of overvaluation with many equities at historic valuations, hardly deserved by enlightened management.
Still, I remain fully invested, adding to my own holdings more often than adding new equities.
I am collecting over 50k in dividends for the first time this calendar year. Were I to fold my small TIAA/CREF account to my IRA and then figure out the impact of my wife's retirement accountants on our potential dividedend/distribution were they rolled into such an account. I would do this rapidly, but the companies that hold her retirement funds put up considerable barriers to transferring money out of their clutches.
The portfolio won't generate enough dividend income to support us at this juncture, but the cash flow is growing considerably year by year. Circumstances at work make me want to quit yesterday, except for that uncomfortable issue about tuition, home mortgage and health care coverage.
it still seems that the best strategy is hands under the weight of ones own backside. I have augmented a few positions that are available at a bargain and will continue this as funds come in until all positions are deemed fully invested and worm castings, compost and tea are available for routine use. At that point I'll either swap a few or capitulate and use funds to round out the whole.
more to come...
Nathan Kemalyan
We have a hot mess in the White House, A lunatic at the helm, but we have record low( if you massage the numbers correctly) unemployment and equity markets continue to escape gravity in spite of threats of rising interest rates, sinking dollar, federal policy chaos.
The fact is, value should follow earnings first and foremost. Clearly some equities have performance to back up their evaluaton. The market still shows signs of overvaluation with many equities at historic valuations, hardly deserved by enlightened management.
Still, I remain fully invested, adding to my own holdings more often than adding new equities.
I am collecting over 50k in dividends for the first time this calendar year. Were I to fold my small TIAA/CREF account to my IRA and then figure out the impact of my wife's retirement accountants on our potential dividedend/distribution were they rolled into such an account. I would do this rapidly, but the companies that hold her retirement funds put up considerable barriers to transferring money out of their clutches.
The portfolio won't generate enough dividend income to support us at this juncture, but the cash flow is growing considerably year by year. Circumstances at work make me want to quit yesterday, except for that uncomfortable issue about tuition, home mortgage and health care coverage.
it still seems that the best strategy is hands under the weight of ones own backside. I have augmented a few positions that are available at a bargain and will continue this as funds come in until all positions are deemed fully invested and worm castings, compost and tea are available for routine use. At that point I'll either swap a few or capitulate and use funds to round out the whole.
more to come...
Nathan Kemalyan
Saturday, May 27, 2017
Memorial Day reflections;
What a wonderful thing!.. 3 day weekend, sun is shining, nothing on the agenda that takes me away from my beautiful acre, other than things to whip it into shape.
The holiday also afforded me the chance to think about the people in my life who have given of themselves to serve this country; My father and paternal grandfather, great uncle, maternal uncle, niece and nephew. My family has not lost a member to war in the last several generations to my knowledge, for which I am grateful to God, and my heart goes out to those who have. Making that supreme sacrifice for this big, conflicted, messy and hugely aspirational country drives me to my knees in humility for their courage. The fact that I am sitting so smugly in my recliner gazing out on the beauty of it marks what I owe them for their service.
What a winter and spring it has been, both personally and in the public square. I have been way too self-absorbed over the last 2-3 years, trying to sort out what is nothing short of a midlife (well, a little later than midlife) crisis regarding my work and the environment in which I work. I think I may finally be coming around the final turn, understanding in retrospect that this has been a period of discernment that will take me to the last big chapter in my professional life. It has been very hard-won insight and it includes mourning what I will leave behind as I step into the next chapter.
I will earn less money and a lot more joy where I am going. My biggest uncertainty is how to maintain essentials like health insurance for my family and keep expenses covered while pursuing the path of my passion for improving access to the benefits of health improvement and low-tech/hi-tech solutions for the poorest people on earth.
The status of my financial security is a subject of endless amazement and amusement. In spite of what seems like utter chaos at the highest levels of government and international relations, the market chugs along, delivering increasing earnings, lower unemployment, doggedly persistent high valuations, broadly speaking, and the rising number of pundits piling on to the prediction game for a coming bear market.
In my multinational holdings, aside from tax policy that traps money abroad, a stagnant domestic market is balanced by robust emerging market. Some valuations have corrected very significantly.
While I remain focused on cash flow from dividends and new contributions, I have been able to view all this with less anxiety than in years past. I am becoming increasingly comfortable in this mode of investment, understanding my portfolio to be a business that generates revenue, rather than a pot of gold that grows and shrinks. In fact, the overall trend is solid growth, but this is better measured in share counts and dividend cash flow than in valuation.
What have I done over the last 5 months with new contributions? I have added to a few positions in the 401k, added a few selected positions in the industrial/business support area. Not much more.
A few of my positions have appreciated to the point that they occupy twice the weight of the average position. However, I have never fully accepted the rationale behind "rebalancing". I"m more content to follow the "never sell" advice of some of the voices I listen to in my reading. I am a "rarely sell" person. I keep track of the gross cash flow month by month which informs me a basic level that the strategy is working. I don't monitor as closely as I should, i.e. looking at growth trends or early warning signals for trouble in a business. That can be my next big task, becoming more deliberate and efficient in higher level surveillance.
Here's hoping that Twittler doesn't drag us into a war...
Ciao
The holiday also afforded me the chance to think about the people in my life who have given of themselves to serve this country; My father and paternal grandfather, great uncle, maternal uncle, niece and nephew. My family has not lost a member to war in the last several generations to my knowledge, for which I am grateful to God, and my heart goes out to those who have. Making that supreme sacrifice for this big, conflicted, messy and hugely aspirational country drives me to my knees in humility for their courage. The fact that I am sitting so smugly in my recliner gazing out on the beauty of it marks what I owe them for their service.
What a winter and spring it has been, both personally and in the public square. I have been way too self-absorbed over the last 2-3 years, trying to sort out what is nothing short of a midlife (well, a little later than midlife) crisis regarding my work and the environment in which I work. I think I may finally be coming around the final turn, understanding in retrospect that this has been a period of discernment that will take me to the last big chapter in my professional life. It has been very hard-won insight and it includes mourning what I will leave behind as I step into the next chapter.
I will earn less money and a lot more joy where I am going. My biggest uncertainty is how to maintain essentials like health insurance for my family and keep expenses covered while pursuing the path of my passion for improving access to the benefits of health improvement and low-tech/hi-tech solutions for the poorest people on earth.
The status of my financial security is a subject of endless amazement and amusement. In spite of what seems like utter chaos at the highest levels of government and international relations, the market chugs along, delivering increasing earnings, lower unemployment, doggedly persistent high valuations, broadly speaking, and the rising number of pundits piling on to the prediction game for a coming bear market.
In my multinational holdings, aside from tax policy that traps money abroad, a stagnant domestic market is balanced by robust emerging market. Some valuations have corrected very significantly.
While I remain focused on cash flow from dividends and new contributions, I have been able to view all this with less anxiety than in years past. I am becoming increasingly comfortable in this mode of investment, understanding my portfolio to be a business that generates revenue, rather than a pot of gold that grows and shrinks. In fact, the overall trend is solid growth, but this is better measured in share counts and dividend cash flow than in valuation.
What have I done over the last 5 months with new contributions? I have added to a few positions in the 401k, added a few selected positions in the industrial/business support area. Not much more.
A few of my positions have appreciated to the point that they occupy twice the weight of the average position. However, I have never fully accepted the rationale behind "rebalancing". I"m more content to follow the "never sell" advice of some of the voices I listen to in my reading. I am a "rarely sell" person. I keep track of the gross cash flow month by month which informs me a basic level that the strategy is working. I don't monitor as closely as I should, i.e. looking at growth trends or early warning signals for trouble in a business. That can be my next big task, becoming more deliberate and efficient in higher level surveillance.
Here's hoping that Twittler doesn't drag us into a war...
Ciao
Sunday, January 22, 2017
I guess it's not a bad dream after all
I woke up the other morning in a cold sweat. The Chief Narcissist is about to become our president. Either America has lost it's marbles, or there are nearly 50% of the public who have no sense of outrage when their chosen leader tramples all over the concept of simple decency. Today at the Sunday service, our Rector emphasized that it is our task to be in the world acting as the body of Christ, actively promoting the values of love, charity, patience, advocacy, long-sufferage in a time when even our leaders threaten the welfare of many amongst us.
It blows my mind that the markets have responded with about 8% rise over the last 10 weeks as a result of the election. What do these people think this man is going to do? Maybe there will be some elements of tax relief, or rollback in regulations, but I doubt our currency is going to become less valuable and our exports to explode any time soon. The world is too unstable a place for people of means to bet on Russia, China or any other large economy to safeguard their personal investments.
Even if the money is in offshore banks, they are still bidding up American institutions, real-estate, American based multi-nationals. European governments are requiring private depositors to PAY to keep their money safe with negative interest rates.
In spite of all the craziness and the bitter aftermath of the election, it hasn't hurt my investment performance. I'm thrilled to see the portfolio do what it was designed to do; outperform in flat and declining markets like most of last year, and spin off increasing dividend payments that can be reinvested. I like the capital gains as well, although they blunt the effect of the DRIP on number of shares and overall dividend payments.
After the KMI debacle, there have been no gross melt-downs in the portfolio. The smallpcap weighted 401k has experienced more volatility than my IRAs that are pumped full of blue-chip dividend paying large-cap stocks. However, it finished nicely in the positive and had a much greater leap in dividend payments, even accounting for the added investment contributions. I sold Johnson Controls after several years of holding it. It was the last of the battery storage companies I bought out of personal interest, but not on the DGI plan. I have redeployed that cash to better prospects. The 401k is sitting on several sizeable unrealized capital losses, but the dividend performance remains strong, and my holding period is infinite unless something drastic happens with my portfolio, apart from some failure in a company's fortunes.
I'm going to have to liquidate some holdings, as I will be in need of bridge financing to move to a new home. I'll probably use this time to clear out some of the laggards and leave the portfolio with its strongest performers. I'll take a loan from the 401k and a short term loan from my IRA to complete the down-payment, then repay them out of the proceeds of the sale of the current home
So what did I learn in the last 4 months? Mostly how to sit on my hands. I deployed some new cash in the 401k and switched some equities into the 401k by selling in the IRA and purchasing in the 401k to allow me to redeploy assets in the 401k. I improved the quality of that portfolio in the process.
Having built out the equities in my portfolio to the degree of diversity I want, now my task is to progressively improve the quality of the holdings, finding companies with higher credit ratings, lower volatility, slanted towards defensive sectors and low- to mid-cap values if I can find them with an adequate pedigree. This results rather low trading frequencies, mostly limited to deploying new money in the 401k.
Using DRIPs halves the amount of purchasing I would otherwise be doing, as all dividends are automatically reinvested. There are no brokerage fees on those reinvested dividends, so my account maintenance fees are truly tiny. Were I invested in funds, between the fund managers and the retirement account manager, I'd be shelling out between 5-10k in management fees every year. My new contributions to the 401k result in about 4-5 purchases per year, so the total cost of investing runs roughly around $100 per year.
I have an associate who pays $6000 per year for an advisor to tell him which funds to buy in his retirement plan. He buys funds individually, so he doesn't get a large institutional class of funds. I'm guessing those funds cost him another 5-10k per year.
At this point in time, I probably spend 2-4 hours/ week reading about investing and checking in on my holdings. That makes 100-200 hours/year. I'm paying myself somewhere between $50-100/hour by self-directing an individual equity portfolio.
Since dividends tend to be more predictable than stock price, I continue to focus on building share count, understanding that the dividend per share is paid whether or not the shares are at a yearly high or yearly low. The primary effect of price is on how many additional shares I can buy at each dividend payout.
This year I'll expect to collect 3+% more shares on the positions I own, and another 3-4% in new contributions. That secures 6-7% growth in the portfolio. Additional growth will come from capital appreciation and dividend growth. I will be thrilled if the portfolio grows by 10% in value of which 7% will come from deploying dividend dollars to reinvestment. Any capital gains will be welcome.
It blows my mind that the markets have responded with about 8% rise over the last 10 weeks as a result of the election. What do these people think this man is going to do? Maybe there will be some elements of tax relief, or rollback in regulations, but I doubt our currency is going to become less valuable and our exports to explode any time soon. The world is too unstable a place for people of means to bet on Russia, China or any other large economy to safeguard their personal investments.
Even if the money is in offshore banks, they are still bidding up American institutions, real-estate, American based multi-nationals. European governments are requiring private depositors to PAY to keep their money safe with negative interest rates.
In spite of all the craziness and the bitter aftermath of the election, it hasn't hurt my investment performance. I'm thrilled to see the portfolio do what it was designed to do; outperform in flat and declining markets like most of last year, and spin off increasing dividend payments that can be reinvested. I like the capital gains as well, although they blunt the effect of the DRIP on number of shares and overall dividend payments.
After the KMI debacle, there have been no gross melt-downs in the portfolio. The smallpcap weighted 401k has experienced more volatility than my IRAs that are pumped full of blue-chip dividend paying large-cap stocks. However, it finished nicely in the positive and had a much greater leap in dividend payments, even accounting for the added investment contributions. I sold Johnson Controls after several years of holding it. It was the last of the battery storage companies I bought out of personal interest, but not on the DGI plan. I have redeployed that cash to better prospects. The 401k is sitting on several sizeable unrealized capital losses, but the dividend performance remains strong, and my holding period is infinite unless something drastic happens with my portfolio, apart from some failure in a company's fortunes.
I'm going to have to liquidate some holdings, as I will be in need of bridge financing to move to a new home. I'll probably use this time to clear out some of the laggards and leave the portfolio with its strongest performers. I'll take a loan from the 401k and a short term loan from my IRA to complete the down-payment, then repay them out of the proceeds of the sale of the current home
So what did I learn in the last 4 months? Mostly how to sit on my hands. I deployed some new cash in the 401k and switched some equities into the 401k by selling in the IRA and purchasing in the 401k to allow me to redeploy assets in the 401k. I improved the quality of that portfolio in the process.
Having built out the equities in my portfolio to the degree of diversity I want, now my task is to progressively improve the quality of the holdings, finding companies with higher credit ratings, lower volatility, slanted towards defensive sectors and low- to mid-cap values if I can find them with an adequate pedigree. This results rather low trading frequencies, mostly limited to deploying new money in the 401k.
Using DRIPs halves the amount of purchasing I would otherwise be doing, as all dividends are automatically reinvested. There are no brokerage fees on those reinvested dividends, so my account maintenance fees are truly tiny. Were I invested in funds, between the fund managers and the retirement account manager, I'd be shelling out between 5-10k in management fees every year. My new contributions to the 401k result in about 4-5 purchases per year, so the total cost of investing runs roughly around $100 per year.
I have an associate who pays $6000 per year for an advisor to tell him which funds to buy in his retirement plan. He buys funds individually, so he doesn't get a large institutional class of funds. I'm guessing those funds cost him another 5-10k per year.
At this point in time, I probably spend 2-4 hours/ week reading about investing and checking in on my holdings. That makes 100-200 hours/year. I'm paying myself somewhere between $50-100/hour by self-directing an individual equity portfolio.
Since dividends tend to be more predictable than stock price, I continue to focus on building share count, understanding that the dividend per share is paid whether or not the shares are at a yearly high or yearly low. The primary effect of price is on how many additional shares I can buy at each dividend payout.
This year I'll expect to collect 3+% more shares on the positions I own, and another 3-4% in new contributions. That secures 6-7% growth in the portfolio. Additional growth will come from capital appreciation and dividend growth. I will be thrilled if the portfolio grows by 10% in value of which 7% will come from deploying dividend dollars to reinvestment. Any capital gains will be welcome.
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