Saturday, September 19, 2015

fair value looks like a bargain

Well, I didn't sit on that cash for very long. I added some companies I'd been eyeing for some time. I have a bit of cash left over; can augment a position or start a fractional position. But, what is my point here? 
The market has been richly valued for some time. Highly desirable dividend paying companies have broadly declined, in some cases to historic P/E ratios. Yields have risen accordingly,  so my yield threshold was met for my recent purchases. In fact, I don't know if there will be a continued correction all the way to a bear market and if it happens, it will look like I didn't have adequate patience. On the other hand, I think the prices I paid are acceptable, so I'm not given to second guessing purchases. I'm not a market timer. I ask my self if the company is one I want in the portfolio based on credit quality, earnings history, dividend history and then I ask if the price is at or below fair value. If so, then I buy if the cash is in the bank.  There may be a better deal down the line, but idle cash isn't collecting dividends. Once I have that position established, subsequent lower prices means the DRIP helps to bring the average purchase price down. I could fret over missing the nadir, but I'm more interested in building the cash producing engine than I am about precisely hitting lowest price points.
I bought UNP and CMI.  I look at transportation and industrials as parts of a 'super sector'. One could throw transportation into retail as well, but I think I relate retail more to trucking than to railroads.
I have been building out the industrials rather slowly, but it won't be long before my basket of industrials is substantially complete. I have a nice basket of consumer defensives, utilities, energy stocks, telecoms, consumer discretionals, technology, financials, health care and real-estate. I have a few bond funds, some MLPs. The only sector I'm steering clear of is basic materials. Someday I might approach that one, but not now.
I'm happy with the diversification. I wasn't expecting to hold over 50 issues, but I'm up around 70 between 3 accounts. So far it doesn't seem to be a burden keeping track of them. We'll see how that feels over time.

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