Wednesday, December 23, 2015

A new view of debt

It happened to KMI. Then it happened to Teekay. Now it's threatening to happen to Conoco Oil.

There was little revenue with energy prices in retrenchment to service their debt. That led to dividend cuts and devaluation of the capital value of the stock.
When 3/4 of the dividend is diverted to managing debt and development projects, the market responds with a similar devaluation of the stock price. This may not seem rational, given that cutting the dividend when facing earnings shortfalls is a prudent move that keeps cash for higher priority items, maintains debt ratings and avoids dilution of shareholder value by issuing more stock, avoids taking on more debt to pay a dividend, etc.  The market isn't rational.
It IS rational for Saudi Arabia and Iran to produce all the oil they can if they can afford to sell it on the cheap.
So, you either take the haircut or sell and take the haircut, redeploying the reduced capital into another sector. I don't actually want to abandon energy stocks. I know that this time and it's distorted conditions will pass. I hate learning lessons this way, but how else?
If an entire sector melts down, my portfolio will surely take a  hit. It won't be 1%; more like 5%.
That's painful. Oil has done similar things in the past. Oil is a commodity and commodity prices can be very volatile at times.
So, what should my response to this turn of events be? Should I take my lumps like every other investor in the industry? Should I rotate out at depressed valuations? My basic buy and hold mentality says "take it". My anxiety says "sell".  I experienced this before, with banks. They have recovered substantially but I left a bunch of money on the table when I abandoned BAC a long time back. I lost my shirt on WaMu. My basic instinct is to avoid panic and stay the course. I think that's what I'll end up doing. 

No comments:

Post a Comment