Sunday, December 30, 2012

If my portfolio were a football team..

If I thought of my portfolio as a football team, how would the whole thing look?

Offense;

quarterback
fullback
halfback
wide receiver
wide receiver
tight end
left tackle
right tackle
left guard
right guard
center

Defense

middle linebacker
right tackle
left tackle
left end
right end
right outside linebacker
left outside linebacker
cornerback
cornerback
left safety
right safety

Who is my quarterback?

The quarterback runs the offense. The quarterback manages the ball (capital). Views the field, calls and executes the play. Deploys the ball; hand-off, pass, keep and run, sneak.  The quarterback is the field general.
no better quarterback than the conglomerate CEO; candidates are Warren Buffett, ( CEO of Loewes, Markel,        )

running backs; grind out the yards, 3-5 yards per play, over and over. These are growth and income companies; can be relied on to make money in most market conditions; Full back is big and strong, can carry others on his back; large cap, drives through tough times, pounds out a bit of growth and steady dividends year in, year out;
Half-back; a bit smaller, more nimble, with explosive potential; smaller-cap, higher earnings growth, plenty of cash flow, could belt out a big surge in earnings, increase dividends sharply

offensive line;  Center; hikes the ball; puts money in motion;  this is a low growth, big dividend company; churns out the cash and dividends, market is mature, not much room for growth, but a cash-producing machine.
Guards:  Similar to center; large cap,  create earnings through production of  commodities, food, consumer staples
Tackle;  Similar to guard; perhaps a different sector, very steady earnings,
Tight end;  this one can run; catch a pass; higher growth potential, dividend at low end of acceptable, but with strong dividend growth potential
Wide receivers;  Pure growth/speculative; dividend may be a token, or none. potential for explosive growth.

Defense;   These players are those that protect you against a market swoon. They are the contrarian sectors; they are best when the current phase of the market is in decline.
So,  who is in the front line against a market melt-down? First, it has to be a company whose product is used in good times and bad. Utilities come to mind. Second, it's performance can't be threatened by a loss of earnings and large debt service. Most utilities have debt, but poeple also keep paying their utilities until times get really tough. Low debt, staple companies sound good to me.

What defensive players might be in the back-field? Linebackers, cornerback and safety; They have to counter the effects of a dramatic downdraft, like intercepting a runner, or a wide-receiver who has broken through to catch a long pass; The first line of defense is sector diversification, as rarely are all sectors performing similarly at once. The next would be investments that run a bit counter to a broad market move down. Hard to know, but perhaps short term bond funds, or international diversification. Finally, a store of value that counters a global meltdown.  I would think that would be a contrarian investment, one that rises when everything else is falling. Precious metals might be an example. I'm not particularly interested in owning gold, silver, platinum and the like, so I'll have to think about whether there is something out there that fills this role better.
I'm also not interested in those short-index funds aimed at rising when the market is falling. They're simply an insurance policy that costs money as long as it is in force.

One "store of value" is simply owning equities that pay consistent dividends. Even if valuation drops, payments continue and with reinvestment, share count rises. That compounding occurs irrespective of share price, and if dividends are preserved or grow, it is a contrarian compounding, as lower valuation causes share counts to accumulate even faster. That reduces position value volatilaty (even if not price volatility)  REITS make a good means of owning real-estate, because you can incrementally grow your holdings, rather than purchasing them in illiquid hunks.

more on this to eome

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